This book’s full title is “This time is Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly”. The authors are Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. See interviews and a review of this book at Princeton University Press. See a better review of this book at Harvard Magazine.
One of the first things that these authors bring up is the trouble with bonds. Their remarks are especially true of government bonds. How governments have ended up buying their bonds debts off, if you could call it that, is by inflation. If you have inflation, the dollars government use to pay off a bond is worth less than the dollars they originally got by selling bonds.
The US debt after WWII was 120% of GDP. How US “paid” off their debt from the 2nd world war was a combination of economic growth and inflation. In the current situation of little economic growth and very little inflation, you got to wonder how the US will bring down their current debt except by some hard decisions on taxes and entitlements.
Interestingly, there are a few countries that never had a central government default. They are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Thailand and the US. Europe had a lot of serial defaulter governments in the past. And some are like England, which had its last default in the 16th century, haven’t defaulted lately. There were also no defaults of central governments between 2003 and 2008, but this is far from normal.
Countries, institutions and financial instruments have changed over time, but human nature does not. Financial crisis follow a rhythm of boom and bust though the ages. The recent financial crisis that originated in the US and spread across the globe is only the latest manifestation of this pattern.
The think is that highly indebted governments, banks or corporations can merrily roll along for an extended period of time and then bang – confidence collapses, leaders disappear and a crisis hits. The thing is that leverage (thin capital to assets) can be fragile and subject to crisis of confidence.
This book may not be everyone’s cup of tea. It can get quite technical. Most people might be better off hearing the author speak. However, for an academic paper, I found this book written quite clearly. Below, I have listed a few places where you can hear both Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff speak.
See “The Anatomy of Financial Crises: A Global Perspective by Professor Carmen Reinhart” at John Hopkins lecture. See also Carmen Reinhart on Financial Crisis and Fiscal Policy at CATO Institute . See Interview with Kenneth Rogoff on "This time is different" at Jyske Global. Also see Ken Rogoff - Debts, Deficits and Global Financial Stability at INET Economics.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Reinhart and Rogoff. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Great Reflation by Anthony Boeckh
This book is fine for this type. However, personally, I liked the book “This Time is Different by Reinhart and Rogoff, better. However, Boeckh does make some interesting points.
He first talks about the Kondratieff wave. This is a popular thing to talk about. What I have found is that a lot of people believe in it, but few agree to just where we are on this wave. The basic problem is that we know where we have been, but we do not know where we are.
I think that the best thing that this author points out is that the current reflation going on in the US is an experiment. People thought this sort of action could have save the US from the Great Depression. However, it is all theory. No one has tried it before.
He, like a lot of US analysts, feels that we are still in a secular bear market. This author does not say so, but I know that a lot of analysts feel that there will be one more downswing in the market before we start on the next secular bull market. The author provides a lot of charts going back to 1885 in the US and these are very interesting.
He talks about how prior to 1960’s, lots of stocks were bought for dividends and dividend paying stocks were more prevalent. There were gradual changes to what people thought companies should do and one of the things is that, especially after 1980, companies cut their dividends and did stock repurchases instead. This was meant as a way to provide more value to taxpaying shareholders, who would have increased capital gain. This is because capital gain is taxed less.
Personally, I do not think that this move worked out well for shareholders. I think partly this has to do with the fact that companies got into giving out stock options. Now, it seems that most of the stock repurchasing is to cover the stock options given out. Also, companies tend to repurchases stocks, not at market lows or when their stocks are undervalued. They do not seem to do the repurchasing at at good prices.
I know a lot of people talk about the current bull market in commodities. This is because of the big demand for commodities from China and India. However, Boeckh points out that huge demand increases in commodities does not lead to rising prices in the long term. He says that the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that over long periods of time supply has risen sufficiently to sustain a powerful long term inflation adjusted decline in commodity prices as a whole.
If you think back to what happened about oil prices in the 1970’s when OPEC increased prices greatly, everyone was looking for oil and they found lots of it all over the world.
Another interesting thing he talks about is a long wave in Political Values. I had not heard of this before. He says that politics go from Progressive to Cosmopolitan to Conservative to Parochial. This matches up with an economy going from Expansion to Peak to Decline to Trough. John Sterman wrote a paper on this and it is available at MIT. Paper is called “An Integrated Theory of the Economic Long Wave”.
For a 10 minute radio interview with Boeckh, see FinancialSense.com. Anthony Boeckh (pronounced Beck, by the way) has an investment newsletter at Boeckh Investment Letter.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Boeckh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
He first talks about the Kondratieff wave. This is a popular thing to talk about. What I have found is that a lot of people believe in it, but few agree to just where we are on this wave. The basic problem is that we know where we have been, but we do not know where we are.
I think that the best thing that this author points out is that the current reflation going on in the US is an experiment. People thought this sort of action could have save the US from the Great Depression. However, it is all theory. No one has tried it before.
He, like a lot of US analysts, feels that we are still in a secular bear market. This author does not say so, but I know that a lot of analysts feel that there will be one more downswing in the market before we start on the next secular bull market. The author provides a lot of charts going back to 1885 in the US and these are very interesting.
He talks about how prior to 1960’s, lots of stocks were bought for dividends and dividend paying stocks were more prevalent. There were gradual changes to what people thought companies should do and one of the things is that, especially after 1980, companies cut their dividends and did stock repurchases instead. This was meant as a way to provide more value to taxpaying shareholders, who would have increased capital gain. This is because capital gain is taxed less.
Personally, I do not think that this move worked out well for shareholders. I think partly this has to do with the fact that companies got into giving out stock options. Now, it seems that most of the stock repurchasing is to cover the stock options given out. Also, companies tend to repurchases stocks, not at market lows or when their stocks are undervalued. They do not seem to do the repurchasing at at good prices.
I know a lot of people talk about the current bull market in commodities. This is because of the big demand for commodities from China and India. However, Boeckh points out that huge demand increases in commodities does not lead to rising prices in the long term. He says that the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that over long periods of time supply has risen sufficiently to sustain a powerful long term inflation adjusted decline in commodity prices as a whole.
If you think back to what happened about oil prices in the 1970’s when OPEC increased prices greatly, everyone was looking for oil and they found lots of it all over the world.
Another interesting thing he talks about is a long wave in Political Values. I had not heard of this before. He says that politics go from Progressive to Cosmopolitan to Conservative to Parochial. This matches up with an economy going from Expansion to Peak to Decline to Trough. John Sterman wrote a paper on this and it is available at MIT. Paper is called “An Integrated Theory of the Economic Long Wave”.
For a 10 minute radio interview with Boeckh, see FinancialSense.com. Anthony Boeckh (pronounced Beck, by the way) has an investment newsletter at Boeckh Investment Letter.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Boeckh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
War: The Definitive Visual Guide
The full title of this book is War: The Definitive Visual History, from Bronze-Age Battles to 21st Century Conflict. This is a DK (Dorling Kindersley) book. If you have not had or read any books from DK, you are in for a real treat.
DK books are marvelous books. They are gorgeously illustrated and written clearly and beautifully. If you get the idea that I admire their books, you are very correct. I have bought their books before and have enjoyed them immensely.
This may not be a subject you will enjoy. It certainly shows human’s violent side. However, we should not forget our history. History is full of battles. We should also not forget how destructive we can be. No matter how we feel about the matter, the truth is that campaigns and conflicts that have shaped world history.
I certainly read this book, cover to cover. However, it is just as good as a coffee table book to browse through when you have some spare time.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See DK. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
DK books are marvelous books. They are gorgeously illustrated and written clearly and beautifully. If you get the idea that I admire their books, you are very correct. I have bought their books before and have enjoyed them immensely.
This may not be a subject you will enjoy. It certainly shows human’s violent side. However, we should not forget our history. History is full of battles. We should also not forget how destructive we can be. No matter how we feel about the matter, the truth is that campaigns and conflicts that have shaped world history.
I certainly read this book, cover to cover. However, it is just as good as a coffee table book to browse through when you have some spare time.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See DK. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Friday, July 29, 2011
How Europe is Indebted to the Sikhs? by Bhupinder Singh Holland
This book is mainly about two things. The Battle of Ieper (Ypres Salient) in WWI and the celebration of Sikhs Martyrs of WWI in Ieper (Ypres) in November 2002.
It is an interesting piece of European History. There were an incredible number of nationalist in the Armies of Britain and France. More than 30 nationalists were represented in the Ypres Salient in the troops that fought there. The British and French had colonies and their armies reflected this fact.
The French army had Moroccans, Algerians, Tunisians, Senegalesians and other West Africans. They also had troops from French Guyana and laborers from Indochina, the Ammanites.
In the British army, first there were the Dominion’s of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The British Indian army would have troops from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal. Other parts of the British Empire sent troops and laborers. These places would include such places as Egypt, the Caribbean, Bermuda, and the Fiji Island. When you think of the Great War, you think about Europeans fighting, but this is simply not true.
The book gives whole chapters towards talking about the Sikhs. It talks about hair, beards and moustaches. It also talks a bit about the philosophy of the Sikhs.
I think that this book might be of great interest in Sikhs tracing their families (i.e. Genealogy). This book has chapters listing the Sikh dead of WWI in both Belgium and France.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Singh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
It is an interesting piece of European History. There were an incredible number of nationalist in the Armies of Britain and France. More than 30 nationalists were represented in the Ypres Salient in the troops that fought there. The British and French had colonies and their armies reflected this fact.
The French army had Moroccans, Algerians, Tunisians, Senegalesians and other West Africans. They also had troops from French Guyana and laborers from Indochina, the Ammanites.
In the British army, first there were the Dominion’s of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The British Indian army would have troops from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal. Other parts of the British Empire sent troops and laborers. These places would include such places as Egypt, the Caribbean, Bermuda, and the Fiji Island. When you think of the Great War, you think about Europeans fighting, but this is simply not true.
The book gives whole chapters towards talking about the Sikhs. It talks about hair, beards and moustaches. It also talks a bit about the philosophy of the Sikhs.
I think that this book might be of great interest in Sikhs tracing their families (i.e. Genealogy). This book has chapters listing the Sikh dead of WWI in both Belgium and France.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Singh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Common Wealth by Jeffrey Sachs
Jeffrey Sachs has a web site at Columbia. For a partial review of this book, see Marginal Revolution and review by Tyler Cowen. Also, see this book in 79 slides at slideshare.net. And, to get a more complete book review, check out Guardian.
For a lecture by Jeffrey Sachs, see YouTube item under Authors@Google.
Jeffrey Sachs is a rich socialist. I guess he says some interesting things. He talks how well the Nordic socialist states are doing. He sort of thinks other states can copy, but I wonder. I think the main reason that socialism works in the Nordic state is lack of corruption. I think that this is cultural and I doubt if other states can do this. It is not just that the Nordic states have ethnic homogeneity. France has this too and it is far more corrupt.
I first time I really realized the difference between England and France as far as corruption goes was with the Profumo Affair. This happen in 1963, so it was a long time ago; but I was young and not conscience really about such things as corruption. In this affair, the UK Secretary of State for War had an affair with reputed mistress of an alleged Russian spy. Being Canadian, I was horrified, as seemed the UK public. However, the French just seem to shrug their shoulders and say, “it happens”.
I also do not think that we humans do things until we are really forced to. In Canada, we still have the problem that the poor go to poor schools. It is just not the problem of money. It is the problem of having the will to change things.
I do not think he really has solutions for changing our world. The poor in lots of places are getting richer and living better probably not because of rich western socialists, but probably in spite of them. Well, at least he is thinking about things. I, in fact, have faith in mankind. I think that we will figure things out and with the poor getting richer, we will have a bright future.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Sachs. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
For a lecture by Jeffrey Sachs, see YouTube item under Authors@Google.
Jeffrey Sachs is a rich socialist. I guess he says some interesting things. He talks how well the Nordic socialist states are doing. He sort of thinks other states can copy, but I wonder. I think the main reason that socialism works in the Nordic state is lack of corruption. I think that this is cultural and I doubt if other states can do this. It is not just that the Nordic states have ethnic homogeneity. France has this too and it is far more corrupt.
I first time I really realized the difference between England and France as far as corruption goes was with the Profumo Affair. This happen in 1963, so it was a long time ago; but I was young and not conscience really about such things as corruption. In this affair, the UK Secretary of State for War had an affair with reputed mistress of an alleged Russian spy. Being Canadian, I was horrified, as seemed the UK public. However, the French just seem to shrug their shoulders and say, “it happens”.
I also do not think that we humans do things until we are really forced to. In Canada, we still have the problem that the poor go to poor schools. It is just not the problem of money. It is the problem of having the will to change things.
I do not think he really has solutions for changing our world. The poor in lots of places are getting richer and living better probably not because of rich western socialists, but probably in spite of them. Well, at least he is thinking about things. I, in fact, have faith in mankind. I think that we will figure things out and with the poor getting richer, we will have a bright future.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Sachs. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
The Smart Swarm by Peter Miller
This is a really delightful and informative book. It is all about how insects and birds act in groups and how these groups get things done.
A single ant or bee isn't smart, but their colonies are. There is a study on Swarm Intelligence. See Wikipedia entry at Swarm Intelligence. What they are looking at is collective behavior of decentralized, self-organized systems. It is being applied to the development of robots. When applied to robots 'swarm intelligence' refers to the more general set of algorithms used to control robots. There is another good article on this at Carleton on this subject.
The monstrous Orcs in The Lord of the Rings coordinated their movements as a marauding army by following simple rules of interaction. These rules were developed by the study of a flock of starlings. If you saw this movie you would see how complex action was delivered from very simple rules. The rules were:
On YouTube, you can see a very short animated video talking about swarms and what they can tell us at
YouTube.
There are a couple of quite detailed reviews on this book. One is at Business Pundit and another good one at Mission to Learn called Lessons from the Swarm by Jeff Cobb
Peter Miller is a senior editor at National Geographic. There are a couple of interesting articles here by Peter Miller. See Field Notes on the National Geographic site. There is also an older article on swarms by Peter Miller on the National Geographic site
There is also an interesting video of how Art Colonies work by Deborah Gordon. See YouTube site. This is rather long at just over an hour.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Miller. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
A single ant or bee isn't smart, but their colonies are. There is a study on Swarm Intelligence. See Wikipedia entry at Swarm Intelligence. What they are looking at is collective behavior of decentralized, self-organized systems. It is being applied to the development of robots. When applied to robots 'swarm intelligence' refers to the more general set of algorithms used to control robots. There is another good article on this at Carleton on this subject.
The monstrous Orcs in The Lord of the Rings coordinated their movements as a marauding army by following simple rules of interaction. These rules were developed by the study of a flock of starlings. If you saw this movie you would see how complex action was delivered from very simple rules. The rules were:
- Stay close to other Orcs
- Don't bump into other Orcs
- Head in the same direction as the Orc throng
- If you run into any humans - cut them in half with your sword"
On YouTube, you can see a very short animated video talking about swarms and what they can tell us at
YouTube.
There are a couple of quite detailed reviews on this book. One is at Business Pundit and another good one at Mission to Learn called Lessons from the Swarm by Jeff Cobb
Peter Miller is a senior editor at National Geographic. There are a couple of interesting articles here by Peter Miller. See Field Notes on the National Geographic site. There is also an older article on swarms by Peter Miller on the National Geographic site
There is also an interesting video of how Art Colonies work by Deborah Gordon. See YouTube site. This is rather long at just over an hour.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Miller. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The Father of Us All by Victor Davis Hanson
The full title is The Father of Us All – War and History – Ancient and Modern. This book is a series of essays that Victor Hanson wrote on war. He has an entry in Wikipedia. There is a review of sorts on this book at PRODOS Film Study Group.
Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History at the Hoover Institution, Sanford University and a professor of classics emeritus at California State University, Fresno. His web site is at Victor Hanson.com and at VDH’s Private Papers.
He talks how the Greeks had rules for war, they had truces and they had plays on the insanity of war, but still they went on fighting with each other. Thucydides says that wars were fought for reasons of honour, self-interest, fear, anger and pride. Others have said we fight over ideas, perceptions, fear, honour and grievances. Today, we want to give different reasons for war. However, if we were really honest with ourselves I think we would come to the same conclusions that wars today are fought for the same sort of reasons.
There are a lot of people today that think that war has changed. It has appeared to change because we fight differently. However, there is no good evidence that people had changed at all. We like to think that we are more peace loving. We have lots of people pushing conflict resolution. But have we really changed? Are humans today really different?
The Greeks felt that some wars were good and some were bad. For example, the Persian wars were good because the Greeks were fighting for their freedom. The Peloponnesian war was bad because Greeks were fighting Greeks. Today we tend to think that all wars are bad, but is this right?
There is an hour video on YouTube called Conversations with History. This is an interview with See Victor Hanson. There is also a video with Victor Hanson talking about this book. See Book TV for a short version. For a long version at Book TV.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Hanson. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History at the Hoover Institution, Sanford University and a professor of classics emeritus at California State University, Fresno. His web site is at Victor Hanson.com and at VDH’s Private Papers.
He talks how the Greeks had rules for war, they had truces and they had plays on the insanity of war, but still they went on fighting with each other. Thucydides says that wars were fought for reasons of honour, self-interest, fear, anger and pride. Others have said we fight over ideas, perceptions, fear, honour and grievances. Today, we want to give different reasons for war. However, if we were really honest with ourselves I think we would come to the same conclusions that wars today are fought for the same sort of reasons.
There are a lot of people today that think that war has changed. It has appeared to change because we fight differently. However, there is no good evidence that people had changed at all. We like to think that we are more peace loving. We have lots of people pushing conflict resolution. But have we really changed? Are humans today really different?
The Greeks felt that some wars were good and some were bad. For example, the Persian wars were good because the Greeks were fighting for their freedom. The Peloponnesian war was bad because Greeks were fighting Greeks. Today we tend to think that all wars are bad, but is this right?
There is an hour video on YouTube called Conversations with History. This is an interview with See Victor Hanson. There is also a video with Victor Hanson talking about this book. See Book TV for a short version. For a long version at Book TV.
On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Hanson. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.
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