Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Forge of Empires, Michael Knox Beran

This book covers the years of 1861 and 1871 and the revolutions of Abraham Lincoln, Tsar Alexander II, and Otto von Bismarck. The subtitle is “Three Revolutionary Statesmen and The World They Made”. What did these men do? Lincoln freed 4 M slaves, Alexander freed 27M serfs and Bismarck swept away an archaic jumble of completing sovereign ties, so many duchies and grand bailiwicks, and secured the prosperity of a region.

Free states like England and US liberated their people’s energies and the institutions of freedom were poised to carry all before them. But there was a countervailing reaction that set in the privileged cases to defend their prerogatives. In Russia, Germany and America, grandees with their backs to the wall meet the challenge of liberty with a philosophy of coercion to protect their power. (Slavery is a system of coercion.)

A couple of methods came with this philosophy. One was paternalism in which the master is a father to the works and looks after them. This is designed to regulate the masses. Another idea was militant nationalism. This is the right of superior people to impose their will on inferior people.

The book also talks about the southern people being Cavaliers. Like the Cavaliers who, in the 17th Century, fought for Charles I in England. Kevin Phillips brings up this point in his book, The Cousins’ Wars. Read an interview with Kevin at PBS.

One thing I learned from this book that I did not know was they Tsar Alexander II send the Russian fleet to US in 1863. He sent the Atlantic fleet to New York and the Pacific fleet to San Francisco Bay. This ended hope of England and France to intervene to help the South.

There is not much online about this book or author, but there is one book review at foreign affairs.

Michael Knox Beran also writes for the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. See some of his writings at their site.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Beran. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Going Dutch, Lisa Jardine

The full name is Going Dutch, How England Plundered Holland’s Glory. Of course, this is not really what happened. It is the Dutch that took over England. However, the Dutch did feel aggrieved by the wealth, power and influence that seeped away from to England at the beginning of the 18th Century.

The Dutch take over, called the Glorious Revolution occurred in 1688, the later part of the 17th Century. History seems to deal with this take over quite softly. The Dutch invasion went remarkably smoothly, with William mounting a propaganda campaign. William’s declaration was a very fine piece of spin. James more or less just sneaked away with his government basically declining to stop the invasion.

The Dutch States General needed the alliance with England. They were afraid that James would make an alliance with France and that France would again attach them. (About a quarter of the Irish Army fighting William at the battle of the Boyne were French Troops.)

However, the main part of this book is devoted, not to history really, but an effort to show that culturally, the English and the Dutch has a lot in common. Jardine tries to show that the Dutch and English share a remarkable amount in terms of outlook, fundamental belief, aspirations and sense of identity.

There is a Wikipedia entry for Lisa Jardine. The Guardian has a rather negative view of this book . I must admit she does go on and on about little culture things. The Independent has a much more positive view of this book .

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Jardine. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The Hammer and The Cross, Robert Ferguson

This book’s full title is The Hammer and The Cross, A New History of the Vikings. There is a good review of this book at The Sunday Times.

The era covered is from the late 8th century when Viking raiders suddenly burst upon the shores of Western Europe and "roughly speaking all the Scandinavian peoples were Heathens" until "roughly the 11th or 12th when "roughly speaking all the Scandinavian peoples thought of themselves as Christians".

The Vikings felt that their culture was under threat and lashed out at the Christians who were threating their culture. The Germans started the trouble with the trying to forcibly convert the Saxon tribes to Christianity. These Saxon tribes were related to the Danish.

Of course the attack on English monastery at Lindisfarne was a complete surprise to the English. They knew who the Vikings were, and they probably had traded with them in the past, but to them this attack was a big shock. But Ferguson tries to bring some understanding to why it happened. Basically, the Vikings were acting like terrorist trying to protect their culture. This is a rather interesting perspective.

Of course, he talks of the Vikings going to Iceland, Greenland and on to North America. He also talks about their invasions into the British Isles. He talks of the Viking raids into Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. And, lastly about the Vikings that went east, down the rivers to the Black and Caspian Seas to Constantinople.

Hear an interview with Robert Ferguson on this book at YouTube podcast. Part 2 of this podcast is at YouTube podcast. See a short interview with Robert Ferguson on YouTube.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Ferguson. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

This time is Different by Reinhart and Rogoff

This book’s full title is “This time is Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly”. The authors are Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. See interviews and a review of this book at Princeton University Press. See a better review of this book at Harvard Magazine.

One of the first things that these authors bring up is the trouble with bonds. Their remarks are especially true of government bonds. How governments have ended up buying their bonds debts off, if you could call it that, is by inflation. If you have inflation, the dollars government use to pay off a bond is worth less than the dollars they originally got by selling bonds.

The US debt after WWII was 120% of GDP. How US “paid” off their debt from the 2nd world war was a combination of economic growth and inflation. In the current situation of little economic growth and very little inflation, you got to wonder how the US will bring down their current debt except by some hard decisions on taxes and entitlements.

Interestingly, there are a few countries that never had a central government default. They are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Thailand and the US. Europe had a lot of serial defaulter governments in the past. And some are like England, which had its last default in the 16th century, haven’t defaulted lately. There were also no defaults of central governments between 2003 and 2008, but this is far from normal.

Countries, institutions and financial instruments have changed over time, but human nature does not. Financial crisis follow a rhythm of boom and bust though the ages. The recent financial crisis that originated in the US and spread across the globe is only the latest manifestation of this pattern.

The think is that highly indebted governments, banks or corporations can merrily roll along for an extended period of time and then bang – confidence collapses, leaders disappear and a crisis hits. The thing is that leverage (thin capital to assets) can be fragile and subject to crisis of confidence.

This book may not be everyone’s cup of tea. It can get quite technical. Most people might be better off hearing the author speak. However, for an academic paper, I found this book written quite clearly. Below, I have listed a few places where you can hear both Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff speak.

See “The Anatomy of Financial Crises: A Global Perspective by Professor Carmen Reinhart” at John Hopkins lecture. See also Carmen Reinhart on Financial Crisis and Fiscal Policy at CATO Institute . See Interview with Kenneth Rogoff on "This time is different" at Jyske Global. Also see Ken Rogoff - Debts, Deficits and Global Financial Stability at INET Economics.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Reinhart and Rogoff. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Friday, August 5, 2011

The Great Reflation by Anthony Boeckh

This book is fine for this type. However, personally, I liked the book “This Time is Different by Reinhart and Rogoff, better. However, Boeckh does make some interesting points.

He first talks about the Kondratieff wave. This is a popular thing to talk about. What I have found is that a lot of people believe in it, but few agree to just where we are on this wave. The basic problem is that we know where we have been, but we do not know where we are.

I think that the best thing that this author points out is that the current reflation going on in the US is an experiment. People thought this sort of action could have save the US from the Great Depression. However, it is all theory. No one has tried it before.

He, like a lot of US analysts, feels that we are still in a secular bear market. This author does not say so, but I know that a lot of analysts feel that there will be one more downswing in the market before we start on the next secular bull market. The author provides a lot of charts going back to 1885 in the US and these are very interesting.

He talks about how prior to 1960’s, lots of stocks were bought for dividends and dividend paying stocks were more prevalent. There were gradual changes to what people thought companies should do and one of the things is that, especially after 1980, companies cut their dividends and did stock repurchases instead. This was meant as a way to provide more value to taxpaying shareholders, who would have increased capital gain. This is because capital gain is taxed less.

Personally, I do not think that this move worked out well for shareholders. I think partly this has to do with the fact that companies got into giving out stock options. Now, it seems that most of the stock repurchasing is to cover the stock options given out. Also, companies tend to repurchases stocks, not at market lows or when their stocks are undervalued. They do not seem to do the repurchasing at at good prices.

I know a lot of people talk about the current bull market in commodities. This is because of the big demand for commodities from China and India. However, Boeckh points out that huge demand increases in commodities does not lead to rising prices in the long term. He says that the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that over long periods of time supply has risen sufficiently to sustain a powerful long term inflation adjusted decline in commodity prices as a whole.

If you think back to what happened about oil prices in the 1970’s when OPEC increased prices greatly, everyone was looking for oil and they found lots of it all over the world.

Another interesting thing he talks about is a long wave in Political Values. I had not heard of this before. He says that politics go from Progressive to Cosmopolitan to Conservative to Parochial. This matches up with an economy going from Expansion to Peak to Decline to Trough. John Sterman wrote a paper on this and it is available at MIT. Paper is called “An Integrated Theory of the Economic Long Wave”.

For a 10 minute radio interview with Boeckh, see FinancialSense.com. Anthony Boeckh (pronounced Beck, by the way) has an investment newsletter at Boeckh Investment Letter.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Boeckh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

War: The Definitive Visual Guide

The full title of this book is War: The Definitive Visual History, from Bronze-Age Battles to 21st Century Conflict. This is a DK (Dorling Kindersley) book. If you have not had or read any books from DK, you are in for a real treat.

DK books are marvelous books. They are gorgeously illustrated and written clearly and beautifully. If you get the idea that I admire their books, you are very correct. I have bought their books before and have enjoyed them immensely.

This may not be a subject you will enjoy. It certainly shows human’s violent side. However, we should not forget our history. History is full of battles. We should also not forget how destructive we can be. No matter how we feel about the matter, the truth is that campaigns and conflicts that have shaped world history.

I certainly read this book, cover to cover. However, it is just as good as a coffee table book to browse through when you have some spare time.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See DK. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.

Friday, July 29, 2011

How Europe is Indebted to the Sikhs? by Bhupinder Singh Holland

This book is mainly about two things. The Battle of Ieper (Ypres Salient) in WWI and the celebration of Sikhs Martyrs of WWI in Ieper (Ypres) in November 2002.

It is an interesting piece of European History. There were an incredible number of nationalist in the Armies of Britain and France. More than 30 nationalists were represented in the Ypres Salient in the troops that fought there. The British and French had colonies and their armies reflected this fact.

The French army had Moroccans, Algerians, Tunisians, Senegalesians and other West Africans. They also had troops from French Guyana and laborers from Indochina, the Ammanites.

In the British army, first there were the Dominion’s of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The British Indian army would have troops from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal. Other parts of the British Empire sent troops and laborers. These places would include such places as Egypt, the Caribbean, Bermuda, and the Fiji Island. When you think of the Great War, you think about Europeans fighting, but this is simply not true.

The book gives whole chapters towards talking about the Sikhs. It talks about hair, beards and moustaches. It also talks a bit about the philosophy of the Sikhs.

I think that this book might be of great interest in Sikhs tracing their families (i.e. Genealogy). This book has chapters listing the Sikh dead of WWI in both Belgium and France.

On my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Singh. Also, this book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at Book Reviews.